Apple’s autumn new product launch conference is scheduled for 1:00 a.m. on September 10, and the new iPhone 16 series will be officially unveiled. It is reported that the “photo button” is one of the upgrade highlights of the iPhone 16 series. However, some institutions are positive about the shipment performance of the iPhone 16 series, while some analysts are negative.
Wedbush analysts believe that Apple’s iPhone sales in fiscal 2025 may exceed 240 million units. He said: “We continue to see further signs in the Asian supply chain that this iPhone upgrade cycle may be a historic cycle, laying the foundation for a super cycle. We estimate that there are currently about 300 million iPhones in the world that have not been upgraded in more than four years. As the AI-driven upgrade cycle continues, Apple’s iPhone sales in fiscal 2025 may exceed 240 million units.”
Preliminary supply chain information shows that consumer demand for the iPhone 16 is much higher than that for the iPhone 15. Analysts expect initial shipments of the iPhone 16 to be 90 million units, higher than Wall Street’s expectations of 80 million to 84 million units, a double-digit year-on-year increase.
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But well-known journalist Mark Gurman holds a different attitude. He believes that an iPhone super cycle is unlikely this year, partly due to macroeconomic factors: demand in China’s smartphone market remains weak, and many other consumers around the world are budget-conscious.
The bigger problem may be attributed to the phone itself. The new iPhone looks almost identical to last year’s model. While the iPhone 16 will have some minor camera upgrades and other new features, nothing is more enticing than a new design to entice consumers to upgrade.
Regarding the various features of the highly anticipated AI system, Gurman said that Apple Intelligence will definitely be the highlight of the iPhone 16 launch event on Monday. But it is becoming increasingly clear that consumers need to wait for a while to experience the best features, so it is impossible to create a “super cycle” to drive the upgrade and hot sales of iPhone 16. In contrast, next year’s iPhone 17 is more optimistic.
