It is predicted that the shipment volume of foldable screen mobile phones in China will reach about 10.68 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 52.4%; and by 2028, this number will exceed 17 million units, with a five-year compound growth rate of 19.8%. With the continuous advancement of foldable screen technology and the continuous growth of market demand, China’s foldable screen mobile phone market is facing unprecedented development opportunities.
On the afternoon of September 10, at Huawei’s latest press conference, Huawei’s Executive Director Richard Yu personally unveiled the world’s first mass-produced three-fold screen mobile phone – Huawei Mate XT Extraordinary Master. Richard Yu said that this phone is a product that other manufacturers have thought of but have found difficult to achieve. Huawei’s three-fold screen mobile phone will rewrite the history of the industry, turn science fiction into reality, and usher in a new era of folding.
Since the advent of foldable screen mobile phones in 2019, this type of product has created a differentiated user experience through the innovation of appearance, thus attracting the attention of a large number of consumers. At present, except for Apple, almost all mainstream mobile phone manufacturers have joined the competition of foldable screen mobile phones. By the first half of this year, major Android manufacturers have realized the “horizontal folding + vertical folding” multi-form foldable screen mobile phone product layout, and Huawei and Honor have become the only two manufacturers to deploy “outward folding” foldable screen mobile phones, making the product form more diverse.
CNMO noted that with the advent of the first mass-produced three-fold screen mobile phone, the entire Chinese folding screen mobile phone industry is about to enter a new stage.
Ahead of the curve
Who is the undisputed leader in China’s foldable phone market? Whether in terms of market sales or social influence, the answer is obvious: Huawei.
Huawei has always been an important participant in China’s foldable screen mobile phone market. Whether in product form design, industrial chain technology integration or system application adaptation, Huawei has always been at the forefront of the industry and led the development direction of foldable screen mobile phones.
According to data from research firm IDC, Huawei has been ranked first in China’s foldable screen mobile phone market share and sales from 2022 to 2024. During this period, Huawei’s market share has remained at around 35% at the lowest and even exceeded 64% at the highest. Especially at its peak in the first half of 2022, Huawei’s foldable screen mobile phone sales were almost twice the total sales of other manufacturers. Even in a relatively sluggish market, Huawei maintained a market share gap of more than 10% with its second-ranked competitor.
In the global market, Samsung’s influence is undoubtedly more extensive, but when discussing the Chinese foldable screen mobile phone market, Huawei’s position is unshakable.
Today, Huawei is one step ahead again, launching the world’s first mass-produced three-fold screen mobile phone – Huawei Mate XT Extraordinary Master. This phone is not only unique in the market, but also helps Huawei become the only folding screen mobile phone manufacturer in the industry that integrates multiple forms such as three-fold, inner fold, outer fold and small fold. After five years of unremitting efforts and development, Huawei has built the world’s most extensive folding screen product line, and its diverse product lineup makes it difficult for any other manufacturer to match it.
The Rise of Heroes
At present, the Chinese foldable screen mobile phone market has formed a “one super and many strong” competition pattern. After Huawei, Honor, OPPO, vivo, Xiaomi and other manufacturers are also forces that cannot be ignored. These brands have been working in the smartphone industry for many years and have a huge user base, which can be used as a foundation to expand the foldable screen mobile phone market at any time.
Before the advent of the three-fold screen mobile phone, Honor and Huawei were the only two manufacturers in the world with the most complete forms of folding screen products. In the first half of 2024, Honor’s share of the Chinese folding screen market was as high as 23.3%, second only to Huawei, becoming the second largest brand. Honor’s folding screen mobile phone emphasizes lightness and thinness, and even ranks first in the industry in this field. Judging from market data, Honor is also one of the manufacturers with the greatest hope of catching up with Huawei. Moreover, Honor does not have the “debuff” that Huawei carries in the overseas market, and there is a broader market to explore.
Vivo’s development in the high-end mobile phone market is also very stable. With the release of the vivo X Fold 3 series, vivo has become the third largest folding screen mobile phone manufacturer in the industry. The current vivo X Fold 3 series offers both standard and Pro versions, with more choices. The reputation of the OriginOS system is also steadily improving. With its strength in hardware design and software optimization, vivo is expected to occupy more market share in the folding screen market.
When OPPO Find N3 was released, although the high price of 9,999 yuan caused some controversy, market data showed that OPPO Find N3 and Flip still grabbed a lot of market share with their unique advantages. OPPO Find N3 took the route of relatively small size in the large folding screen market, successfully forming differentiated competition with other brands’ products. OPPO’s attempt in the field of folding screen mobile phones shows that even in the high-end market, as long as there is a unique selling point, it can still win the favor of consumers.
In contrast, the development of Xiaomi’s foldable screen mobile phones is relatively dull. Although the recent Xiaomi MIX Flip has been well received by the market, Xiaomi MIX Fold is relatively ordinary compared with the large foldable products of OPPO and vivo. However, “ordinary” may also be a “moderate” choice. Xiaomi can still occupy a place in the foldable screen market with its advantages in cost-effectiveness and brand influence.
No such person found
In recent years, although Apple has undisputedly occupied a leading position in the smartphone industry, it has never made any progress in the emerging field of foldable screen phones.
According to a report by market research firm TrendForce, Apple has extremely strict requirements for the creases and reliability of foldable screen phones, which means that Apple needs to invest a lot of research and development efforts in terms of component specifications and performance. Therefore, analysts predict that Apple is unlikely to launch a foldable phone before 2027. This prediction coincides with some earlier revelations. In March this year, it was reported that the foldable iPhone originally scheduled to be released in the fourth quarter of 2026 was postponed to the first quarter of 2027.
Apple’s absence in the field of foldable phones can be understood from multiple perspectives. On the one hand, Apple has always adhered to high standards for product quality and user experience, which is reflected in its strict quality control and repeated testing of each new product. For products such as foldable phones that involve complex mechanical structures, Apple obviously hopes to ensure that they are optimal in terms of durability and user experience. On the other hand, Apple may have temporarily shelved the research and development of foldable phones because of its strategic layout in other fields. For example, Apple once made some arrangements in the car manufacturing business, but later withdrew from this field. Subsequently, Apple missed the wave of artificial intelligence. Despite the recent launch of Apple Intelligence, it still faces challenges in adaptation and application scenarios.
Apple’s sluggishness in the field of foldable phones may reflect the multiple challenges it faces in the rapidly changing technology industry. Although Apple has a strong brand influence and technical strength, it also needs to weigh the allocation of resources and the choice of technical routes when facing emerging technologies and market trends. As a cutting-edge technology, foldable phones have a long R&D cycle and high investment costs. Apple obviously hopes to ensure that it can bring a disruptive product experience once it enters the market through adequate preparation.
The era of three-fold has arrived
China’s mobile phone industry is famous for its volatility. Perhaps many people did not expect that the second triple-folding screen mobile phone manufacturer would appear quickly, and it is very likely to be Honor.
According to multiple sources, Honor’s internal preparations for the three-fold screen mobile phone are already quite complete. Like Honor’s dual-fold screen mobile phone, Honor’s three-fold screen mobile phone will also take the route of being thin and light, and will still have a large-capacity Qinghai Lake battery built in. Of course, there is no hope for Honor’s three-fold screen mobile phone to be released in 2024. According to CNMO’s speculation, Honor’s three-fold screen mobile phone will be unveiled as early as the first half of 2025.
In addition to Honor, Xiaomi, OPPO, and Samsung have all been reported to be preparing and deploying three-fold screen mobile phones. However, most other manufacturers are still waiting and watching. Although Huawei’s three-fold phone is very popular, it has not yet been officially launched. It may only take a moment for manufacturers to turn from waiting and watching to “taking action”.
Final Thoughts
Since the advent of foldable screen phones, their unique appearance design, especially the horizontal folding form, not only leaves a deep impression visually, but also provides a larger screen display space in actual use, thus stimulating consumers’ desire to change their phones. However, as the price of foldable screen phones gradually becomes more affordable and the market demand for larger screens and portability continues to increase, traditional foldable screen designs can no longer meet the growing and diverse needs.
In this context, triple-folding screen mobile phones came into being, opening a new chapter in folding screen mobile phones. The exposure of the Tecno Phantom Ultimate 2 concept phone video allowed people to see the charm of the triple-folding screen for the first time. And with the official release of Huawei Mate XT, this innovative form officially entered the public eye, heralding the arrival of the era of triple-folding screen mobile phones.
With the advancement of technology and increasing market acceptance, tri-fold screen mobile phones will undoubtedly become an important force in driving the development of the smartphone industry.
