In November 2018, domestic manufacturer Royole Technology took the lead in launching the world’s first foldable screen mobile phone FlexPai1. Since then, heated discussions about foldable screens have continued, and the heat has not diminished to this day. At first, the emergence of foldable screens was accompanied by many doubts: Can it really bring users a value experience beyond that of straight-screen mobile phones? For this form factor change, is the increase in weight, cost and possible durability issues worth it? However, the passage of time and market feedback have given the answer.
Entering 2024, foldable screen mobile phones have moved from the initial exploration stage to a mature and diversified development stage. In the market, there are a wide variety of foldable screen products with various configurations, forms and price ranges. They not only enrich consumers’ choices, but also gradually establish the important position of foldable screens in the smartphone market. Sales data is the best proof. According to a report by Counterpoint Research, global shipments of foldable screen smartphones surged 49% in the first quarter of 2024, indicating a strong growth momentum in this market segment.
What is particularly noteworthy is that in this folding screen competition, Chinese mobile phone manufacturers have demonstrated strong competitiveness. In particular, Huawei’s folding screen mobile phones have made significant breakthroughs worldwide, surpassing Samsung, which has long been in the leading position, for the first time and becoming the quarterly shipment champion.
Huawei has another big move
Richard Yu gave a sneak peek of Huawei’s next-generation folding screen during last month’s “Walking with Huawei” livestream. He described it as follows: “The next-generation folding screen is something everyone else can think of, but can’t make. We’ve been thinking about it for five years, and it’s finally coming out.”
Later, at the delivery ceremony of the first batch of Enjoy S9 owners held in August, Yu Chengdong was present. During the event, an owner who already owned the Enjoy M5, M7 and M9 series asked Yu Chengdong about Huawei’s launch plan for the three-fold screen mobile phone. Yu Chengdong revealed that the new phone will be released next month, that is, in September. As for the exact release time, Huawei may arrange it after the release of the iPhone 16 series. This strategy is vividly called “three-fold battle capacitive keys” by industry bloggers.
The specific plan for Huawei’s upcoming three-fold screen mobile phone is still unknown. However, real photos of what is suspected to be Huawei’s three-fold screen mobile phone have been leaked on the Internet, attracting widespread attention. In the picture, Yu Chengdong’s new phone shows extraordinary visual impact. Its screen size is far larger than that of conventional folding screen mobile phones. The design is unique. It is not a tablet but better than a tablet. The centered hole camera embedded on the top left and the vaguely visible double crease design. What is even more eye-catching is that the side of the phone is suspected to be equipped with a stylus.
Some bloggers compare this phone to “electronic Moutai”, indicating that it may have a very high market premium and become a scarce product that is difficult to buy easily. Considering the high threshold of tri-fold screen technology, the significant increase in R&D and material costs, and the tight market supply and demand relationship, the industry generally predicts that the price of this phone will significantly exceed the price range of current mainstream large folding screen phones, and may even exceed the 20,000 yuan mark.
As September is quietly approaching, many consumers are looking forward to Huawei’s upcoming tri-fold. Just before the much-anticipated launch, another mobile phone brand took the lead and launched its first tri-fold concept version. Although it is still in the concept stage, it has successfully attracted widespread attention and heated discussions in the market.
The era of triple folding is coming
For those who are interested in the digital field, they must have been attracted by Transsion’s three-fold concept phone, the Phantom Ultimate 2. According to Transsion’s official introduction, the thickness of this new phone is amazingly reduced to only 11 mm when folded. This size data is even more outstanding when compared with Samsung’s Z Fold6, because the thickness of Samsung’s new phone is 12.1 mm when folded.
Transsion emphasized that the phone uses the “thinnest battery cover in the smartphone industry”, which is only 0.25 mm thick and is made of advanced “ultra-compressed Titan fiber material”, further enhancing the thinness of the phone. In terms of screen, the Phantom Ultimate 2 is equipped with a 6.48-inch main display. When fully unfolded, the internal display can be expanded to 10 inches. It uses a high-resolution 3K OLED panel with an aspect ratio of 4:3, providing a visual experience close to that of a tablet.
The Phantom Ultimate 2 is not limited to simple folding and unfolding, but also supports multiple folding angles. For example, one-third of the phone can be laid flat on the table, and the rest can form a laptop-like layout; or the two screens can form a triangle for media viewing at different angles.
In addition, the hinge of the Phantom Ultimate 2 has been rigorously tested and can support up to 300,000 folding operations. However, as a concept device, Transsion has not yet announced the specific specifications and launch plan of the machine, but considering the rise of the three-fold market, the official launch of the Phantom Ultimate 2 is just around the corner.
Transsion’s move also sends a positive signal to the foldable screen mobile phone market. That is, the three-fold screen may be the next key point for manufacturers to compete.
Recently, an industry blogger revealed that Xiaomi’s three-fold has been opened, indicating that it will also enter this field. At the same time, Samsung and Honor are also actively deploying in this field. As early as the 2021 International Information Display Society Exhibition, Samsung initially demonstrated the concept of its three-fold solution. As for Honor, CEO Zhao Ming also revealed that Honor has a comprehensive layout in the innovation of folding screen technology, including various forms such as three-fold and scroll. The technical level has the ability to launch a three-fold mobile phone, but whether it will be launched on the market still needs to be considered based on business strategy.
This shows that the top foldable screen manufacturers are ready to go at the technical level, just waiting for the market to test. Whether it is Honor or Samsung, whether they choose to join the competition immediately or observe market dynamics before making a decision will become a key point in the competition in the foldable screen mobile phone market in the second half of 2024.
Expect or not optimistic
The market reaction to the tri-fold mobile phone is complex and varied, with both expectations and doubts. On the one hand, just like the freshness brought by Apple Vision Pro, the public has extremely high expectations for this new form of terminal device, eager to experience the unprecedented charm of technology. On the other hand, given that foldable screen mobile phones are not yet widely popular, doubts have also arisen, exploring whether it is necessary to launch a more avant-garde tri-fold product under the dual challenges of technology and cost.
Compared with the existing large-folding and small-folding designs, the three-fold screen has higher requirements on the area and performance of the flexible screen, especially in terms of maintaining consistent display effects and durability at multiple creases, which significantly increases the technical difficulty. The manufacturing of key components such as screens and hinges also faces many challenges, requiring collaborative innovation and breakthroughs in materials science, engineering technology and production processes. However, with the continuous advancement of technology, these problems have been gradually overcome.
Many industry insiders believe that the current three-fold display is still in the stage where manufacturers are “flexing their muscles”. Its target users are mainly technology enthusiasts who are passionate about new technologies and new forms of equipment and are willing to try new things, as well as business people and creative workers who pursue larger screen space to improve work efficiency.
Industry analysts pointed out that the intensive release of multiple new foldable screen phones this year has not only injected fresh blood into the market, but also stimulated consumers’ enthusiasm for purchasing, which is expected to promote the continued prosperity of the foldable screen mobile phone market. At the same time, authoritative data forecasts show that the shipment volume of foldable screen mobile phones has maintained a high growth trend for a long time, and the market penetration rate has gradually increased, indicating a broad prospect for this market segment in the future. It is expected that by 2028, the penetration rate of foldable screen mobile phones is expected to reach 4.8%, indicating that it is gradually moving from a niche to the masses.
With the upcoming launch of Huawei’s tri-fold phone and the gradual iteration and update of technology, foldable terminals are expected to open up a larger market space.
